War for customers brewing if CIBC, TD don’t reach deal on Aeroplan: analyst
TORONTO — Loyalty credit card customers could soon find themselves being aggressively wooed if a proposed deal to allow both TD and CIBC to offer Aeroplan rewards cards doesn’t succeed.
“We do see this as an opportunity to win over a lot more consumers onto the American Express brand,” said David Barnes, vice-president of advertising and communications at American Express Canada, which already offers several AeroplanPlus cards.
Industrial Alliance Securities analyst Neil Linsdell said he doesn’t think it’s likely that TD will agree to a proposed deal that would see CIBC (TSX:CM) retain about half of the Aeroplan customers.
“I’m trying to figure out why TD would agree to do it,” said Linsdell.
“If you’re TD, do you want CIBC to be able to offer Aeroplan points to their credit card customers? Probably not. This is the whole reason they inked this deal, to get exclusivity on this thing so they could really get their hooks into it.”
Unless the banks work out a mutual agreement, that could mean a bumpy transition for Aeroplan holders from the CIBC Aeroplan cards to the TD ones, said Linsdell.
This would create a prime opportunity for competitors like American Express and Royal Bank of Canada (TSX:RY) with its Avion Visa card — to try to snatch up a larger share of the rewards card business.
“If you suddenly don’t have a CIBC Aerogold Visa choice anymore and you’re going to transition over to TD, maybe you’re going to take this opportunity to re-evaluate,” said Linsdell.
“Do I really need an Aeroplan affiliated card? Should I go with a cash-back card, instead?”
That could lead to an all-out war in the rewards card market that could give customers more choices as TD, CIBC, RBC and other competitors present comparable packages.
However, if CIBC completely stops offering Aeroplan products, that could mean customers who hold its Aventura rewards card would no longer be able to redeem their points for Aeroplan miles — one of the “key benefits” of the program, said Linsdell.
During its second-quarter earnings call last May, RBC said it is poised to snag a larger share of the loyalty credit card market if CIBC does not renew its deal with Aimia.
“If there’s any disruption in the marketplace, it will cause customers to re-evaluate their credit card and value propositions,” David McKay, RBC’s head of personal and commercial banking, told analysts.
“That point of re-evaluation is a significant opportunity for us to present our solution to a large number of Canadians who might not consider them otherwise.”
Aimia said Tuesday that it’s possible both TD and CIBC will be offering cards with Aeroplan rewards points starting next year if the two banks can come up with an agreement during talks.
Aimia CEO Rupert Duchesne told analysts Tuesday that having both banks offering Aeroplan cards “would be an elegant solution that would be a win-win-win for us, TD, and CIBC.”
Montreal-based Aimia, which began as division within Air Canada that managed frequent fliers points, has since expanded to handle Aeroplan and other customer loyalty programs in various industries in several countries.
CIBC has partnered with Aeroplan for more than 20 years but that relationship is in flux as its current 10-year term agreement with Aimia comes to a close at the end of 2013.
CIBC has declined to match an offer from rival TD Bank but it has proposed that it should keep half of current Aerogold customers who have other products with CIBC that earn Aeroplan miles, such as chequing accounts and mortgages.
The three parties said Monday that they were working towards an agreement by Aug. 26. However, if there’s no compromise, Aimia has said it will go ahead with the TD plan.
After markets closed Monday, Aimia announced a second-quarter net loss of $415.2 million or $2.43 per share, compared to $35 million or 19 cents per share a year ago.
The company said the loss was due to non-cash items related to changes in the Aeroplan program, which produced a $663.6 million hit to revenue and a related income tax recovery of $180 million during the second quarter.
Excluding the change in Aeroplan and several other items, Aimia’s revenue for the quarter was $540.3 million, up from $7.1 million a year ago.