Garneau bows out of Liberal race

OTTAWA—Marc Garneau dropped out of the federal Liberal leadership race yesterday and threw his support to front-runner Justin Trudeau, declaring the outcome “a fait accompli.”
The Montreal MP’s decision followed an internal poll conducted by his campaign last week, which Garneau said showed Trudeau has the backing of 72 percent of Liberal members and supporters.

Garneau said he was a “solid second” with 15 percent, followed by Vancouver MP Joyce Murray with just over seven percent and former Toronto MP Martha Hall Findlay with just over five percent.
“I have done my numbers,” Garneau told a news conference.
“I cannot mathematically—and I’m a person who believes in math—I cannot mathematically win.
“I’m not into denial,” he added. “The numbers indicate very clearly that Justin is the overwhelming favourite.”
But Murray said she puts no stock in Garneau’s survey, the methodology of which her camp finds highly suspect.
She said it won’t influence her decision to continue her campaign, which has enjoyed a late burst of momentum.
“I’m not going to give it any credit,” Murray said in an interview.
“I happen to completely disagree with his assessment that there’s only one possible outcome to this race. . . .
“It’s not a done deal,” she stressed.
Garneau’s automated phone poll asked 6,000 Liberal supporters and members to indicate whether they favoured Garneau, Trudeau, Hall Findlay, or Murray—in that order and without mentioning the other four contenders.
It was a not a survey of registered voters, the Murray camp noted, even though the outcome will depend on which campaign is best able to get supporters to register and then actually cast ballots during the week of April 6.
Murray’s camp is hopeful her supporters—urged on by a host of grassroots and online advocacy groups who back her environmental credentials and her plan for electoral co-operation among progressive parties—are more committed than average.
Garneau’s survey also didn’t take into account the fact the results will be weighted to give each riding equal clout, whether they have 1,000 registered voters or 100.
Without knowing the distribution of each candidate’s support, it’s impossible to accurately predict the outcome—although no one disputes Trudeau is in the lead.
“For those talking about polls and numbers: we’re not naive and we’re fully aware of the challenge,” Hall Findlay said in a statement.
But she added: “There are some ridings with thousands of registered voters—but each one of those ridings is worth 100 points. There are also a large number of ridings with very few, many with fewer than 50.
“Each one of those ridings is also worth 100 points.
“We have run a truly national campaign, and have approached it very strategically,” Hall Findlay remarked.
Murray said she was surprised by Garneau’s decision to endorse Trudeau—given he’s repeatedly said a coronation is not in the party’s best interests and has accused the front-runner of lacking policy depth, experience, and leadership credentials.
Garneau insisted yesterday that his criticism of Trudeau was “constructive,” that the front-runner “has risen to the occasion,” and proven an unmatched ability to rally people to the party.
“One must render unto Caesar that which is due to Caesar,” he said, adding he intends to remain a “loyal soldier” under the new leader.
Garneau’s departure leaves seven candidates in the running: Trudeau, Murray, Hall Findlay, David Bertschi, Martin Cauchon, Deborah Coyne, and Karen McCrimmon.
Voting for the Liberal leadership will be conducted online and by phone early next month, with the winner to be announced April 14.